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Bayesian/Frequentist Designs for Sequential/Group-Sequential Trials of a Single Binomial Parameter


This program creates Bayesian designs for either a sequential or group-sequential single-sample binomial trial. In particular, let theta be the probability of the event of interest (which in clinical trials could be either toxicity or response). The trial terminates when there is sufficient evidence that the chosen one of the three conditions holds, where ph0 is a user-specified null hypothesis value of theta. A Bayesian design method is used: the designer specifies a beta prior distribution on theta; the trial ceases when the posterior distribution posits that the probability that theta is greater than (or less than depending on the direction of the test) ph0 is sufficiently large. For a frequentist, the value of sufficiently large can be calculated to provide (close to) a specified significance level.

Contact: Barry W. Brown

Language: Fortran 95