Predictive Probabilities

This software provides predictive probability analysis of clinical trials. The software computes the posterior predictive probabilities concluding that one arm or the other is superior or stopping a trial due to futility. This software is often used in designing clinical trials and in conducting interim analyses.

The software supports clinical trials in which the primary endpoint is binary or time-to-event (TTE).

See the Predictive Probabilities User's Guide for more information.

See Predictive Probability Interim Analysis for a brief explanation of the statistics behind this software. See also the online documentation.

See also on this site Phase II PP, software using Bayesian predictive probability in the design of phase II clinical trials.

Note that although the user interface focuses on two-arm trials, one can use the software to analyze single-arm trials by specifying the number of observations on one of the arms to be zero.

J. Kyle Wathen developed the first version of the software, using C# for the user interface and C++ for the numerical calculations. Hoang Nguyen and Clift Norris developed version 1.3.